July 6th 2019, Silver Chartbook

Silver – A week in review

In our chartbook from June 30th 2019, we had planed a low risk reentry zone which was right away hit. When the market opened that weekend after the publication, the trap we had set, was sprung. We posted the entry in real time in our live Telegram channel. In addition we also took a play in the gold market since it seemed bullish as well. This news driven gap opening on momentum felt like a good opportunity to participate in the market. We call this week´s silver chart-book “Silver – a week in review” to see how these reentries panned out.

Silver – a week in review! Daily chart of silver  7/2/2019, strong reversal move:

Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of June 2nd, 2019

Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of July 2nd, 2019

Daily chart as of July 2nd 2019, Gold, “winner winner, chicken dinner”:

Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of June 2nd, 2019

Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of July 2nd, 2019

Right the next day we got rewarded for daringly buying into the decline. Both markets aggressively reversed course and continued in their bullish direction. The previous news heavy week and weekend had been shrugged off. We used our quad exit strategy that de-pleats risk dramatically by cutting exposure size in half  through “early profits taking”.  Thus we were able to lock in 1.24 % profits on our silver holding. Our gold trade rewarded us with 2.44% at this first target.

July 3rd 2019, Silver daily chart, back at distribution level of resistance:

Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of June 3nd, 2019

Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of July 3nd, 2019

Yet on July 3rd 2019 we were back at a strong resistance zone at the US$15.45 price level and the bulls ran out of steam.

Daily chart July 3rd 2019, Gold/US Dollar, double top price formation:

Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of June 3nd, 2019

Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of July 3nd, 2019

The gold market looked no different that day and had build a double top resistance pattern. Enough reason for us raising our stops in both the silver and the gold holding to our original entry zones. This would lock in further profits, should prices decline. We shared that announcement in real time in our telegram channel as well.

Silver – a week in review! July 5th 2019, Silver daily chart, stopped out with rest position at breakeven entry levels:

Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of June 5th, 2019

Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of July 5th, 2019

By the end of the week Silver prices had reached our original entry zone. Since we had raised the stop to break even levels, we got stopped out with the rest of our holding.

Gold/US Dollar daily chart, July 5th 2019, Gold hanging on by a thread:

Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of June 5th, 2019

Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of July 5th, 2019

Our gold holding had a massive drop as well on Friday, but with a bit of luck missed our stop target point by merely 51 cents. Our entry price was US$1,386.24 and the lowest traded price on Friday was US$1,386.75.

This example shows one more time how aggressive entry timing paired with our Quad Exit Strategy reduces risk immediately and guarantees more often than not at least moderate profits. In this case 0.62%. Now this might not seem enough, but if reviewing the above charts one will find a very likely scenario that with a simple “all in, all out” strategy the silver trade would have been stopped out at a full loss.

In conjunction with the relative strength technique to apply further risk hedging buy adding a gold position that showed relative strength in the market, we even still have a “foot in the door”; a remainder position that is still in place and should original bulish consensus remain might still produce a handsome additional reward besides this gold position already being handsomely cashed out by half with a 2.44% profit yield.

Taking aggressive action of accumulation in a holding against herd behavior, with extreme conservative methods of early “withdrawals”(=taking profits off the table and reducing risk by cutting the position in half) pays off. Adding additional edges like diversification within the sector through an even stronger (relative strength) counterpart holding, are further methods to ensure success and risk mitigation.

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About the Author:

Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent.Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.


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