Aug 30th 2019, Crypto Chartbook

Bitcoin, how low can it go

Theoretically all the way to zero. But more realistically, we are about to reach a very significant point, especially from a timing perspective. Feel free to review our chartbook that shows a cyclical statistical edge. We normally focus more on shorter time frames and time precision and ways on how to maximize returns. It is always the larger picture that is the most significant and many of our readers and followers in our Telegram channel are investors not traders. This chartbook has specifically those truly long-term market participants in mind. We find it wise for wealth preservation reasons and other factors and criteria to contemplate a position in the crypto market space. So we ask ourselves, bitcoin, how low can it go.

August 30th 2019, BTC/USDT, monthly chart, entering an investors buying zone:

Bitcoin in TetherUS, monthly chart as of August 29th 2019

Bitcoin in TetherUS, monthly chart as of August 29th 2019

The chart above illustrates that prices have entered an “investor’s buying zone”. Yet, the more important part being that markets soon will exit the summer doldrums which could provide for a quick change in direction.

Bitcoin, how low can it go, BTC/USDT, weekly chart August 30th 2019, right in the middle:

Bitcoin in TetherUS, weekly chart as of August 29th 2019

Bitcoin in TetherUS, weekly chart as of August 29th 2019

On the weekly chart above we can see that the fifty percent retracement of price represented by the yellow line finds itself right in the middle of our green entry zone.

Why bitcoin? Well, why not?

In the past markets weeded out the weak. This was a form of natural movement in a free economy. Now markets do not fulfill these functions anymore. One of the factors was giving up the gold standard, which was a bench mark to measure against. Now we find ourselves in an environment that supports weak forces and value has eroded. Market “bubbles” have become the norm not the extreme.

Due to the instability of markets themselves, little shocks could actually tumble whole economic systems in a fast fashion. That being said, we find the crypto markets refreshing. Are they resistant to bubbles? No, but they are not “infected as such quite yet”. Meaning, efficiency is something money and behavior has always followed! Certain underlying principles like security in blockchain and time and logistic efficiencies in some of the presented new technologies, will prevail since they simply “supersede” prior systems in efficiencies.

There is always a typical time delay of adaptation of the new. It is this delay of mass adoption that equals opportunity for the investor.

Some elements of this new movement will not only survive but replace outdated past logistics.

For a wealth building and wealth preserving portfolio the addition of crypto currencies to fiat currencies, precious metals, real estate among other investment vehicles is absolutely essential in the larger time frame perspective. But as the crypto market is a highly volatile space, position sizing should be extremely conservative. 

The future is unknown to all of us, but we have the ability to prepare in a low risk fashion.

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About the Author:

Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent.Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.


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