Jan 26th 2019, Crypto Chartbook

Bitcoin – The larger Picture

The crypto market is still much related in regards to how the price of Bitcoin is performing. This makes a top down analysis (larger picture) of Bitcoin (BTC) imperative. Otherwise you would trade against the overall grain of the market. In this “crypto chart-book” we want to zoom into the price action of the dominating crypto currency Bitcoin against the stable coin Tether (USDT). According to their website, every Tether is always backed 1-to-1, by traditional currency held in their reserves. So 1 USDT is always equivalent to 1 USD.

BTCUSDT is a relative young pair but sheds clarity in its simplicity:

BTCUSDT monthly chart as of January 26th, 2019

BTCUSDT monthly chart as of January 26th, 2019

A near 100 percent retracement within a few month still shows weakness. The importance here remains therefore that risk is clearly to the downside not to the upside. As such we have closed out our long term short positions by 90 percent in size.

This is the main context under which the recent daily tight range has to be viewed. But although we are expecting a break out any time now, it is not warranted to take this as a short entry:

BTCUSDT daily chart as of January 26th, 2019

BTCUSDT daily chart as of January 26th, 2019

The range break has a slight favor towards the short side and a revisit of the price levels around 3,000 USD and even 2,800 USD is likely. Therefore portfolio adjustments are certainly wise but our focus is shifting towards long entries instead.

4-hour charts already point towards low risk entries that favor the long side and are under close observation:

BTCUSDT 4 hour chart as of January 26th, 2019

BTCUSDT 4 hour chart as of January 26th, 2019

The 60 minute time frame represents most transparent the tight squeeze range of the last week. A substantial move from these price levels might be imminent:

BTCUSDT hourly chart as of January 26th, 2019

BTCUSDT hourly chart as of January 26th, 2019

All charts timely posted in our telegram channel.

About the Author:

Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent.Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

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