Oct 3rd 2019, Crypto Chartbook

The unexpected

One easily gets lured in by ones emotions triggered from the environment. Prices flickering before ones eyes on the computer screen. Certainly colleagues at work sharing their opinions. Above all, media hype with headlines exaggerating facts. Consequently, there can be conflict of when to act. Removing oneself to a higher time frame view and form ones own opinion and trading execution plan is necessary. Blaise Pascal put it best: “All of humanity’s problems stem from man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone.” The following monthly and weekly charts show just such a possibility, where the unexpected might happen. Consequently prices possibly turning not at the usual horizontal support resistance zones, that are so overused in typical technical analysis.

Oct 3rd 2019, BTC/USDT, weekly chart, the unexpected:

Bitcoin in TetherUS, weekly chart as of October 3rd 2019 a

Bitcoin in TetherUS, weekly chart as of October 3rd 2019 a

Usual methods for entry can be used, should the next turning point be at a classical horizontal support resistance zone. What we find useful is to be prepared for the lesser obvious. The weekly chart above shows how prices behaved last time they touched the lower yellow directional support resistance zone.

BTC/USDT, monthly chart October 3rd 2019, the larger picture:

Bitcoin in TetherUS, monthly chart as of October 3rd 2019

Bitcoin in TetherUS, monthly chart as of October 3rd 2019

The monthly chart, here in its reduced form, represents harmony. Firstly a five count expansion from the beginning of the year. Secondly a proportionally sound three to four count contraction. This could set up just the turning point we are looking for. Risk reward ratios looking mutually attractive.

BTC/USDT, weekly chart October 3rd 2019, stacking edges:

Bitcoin in TetherUS, weekly chart as of October 3rd 2019 b

Bitcoin in TetherUS, weekly chart as of October 3rd 2019 b

Stacking odds of ones verified tools, with an independent view from the crowd. At times the best method to have an edge over other market participants. The weekly chart above provides a few of those possible technical analysis tools to watch out for:

  • Action/reaction principle after a swift 20% decline in price.
  • Directional trend line support (lower yellow line).
  • Entering green buy zone (fractal summation).
  • Upcoming 40 simple moving average support (blue line).
  • Oversold readings on indicators and oscillators.
  • Average volume market participation confirmation (blue cloud).

You find some of our tools used here.

When emotions get triggered they ask for energy release. Over trading, chasing trades, and many more loss creating behaviors can be the result. The more advanced trader might be able to contain immediate energy release actions, but still hopes for confirmation. In this case a swift price decline to the US$7,000 zone or bar takeouts on price charts to the upside. The truly astute trader follows Pascals advise and forms his/her independent scenario and prepares in addition – the unexpected.

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About the Author:

Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent.Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.


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