Feb 3rd 2019, Silver Chartbook

Positioning and Time

We often get asked in which direction prices will head…

Yes, it is helpful to know if markets trade up, sideways or down. What is often overlooked though is the fact, that without proper entry timing one still can find oneself in a series of loosing trades, although having identified direction correctly. This problem can have multiple causes. One of them is a time relativity error (Positioning and Time). Others are misaligned risk/reward ratios. And there are many more…

This weeks silver chart-book illustrates such a scenario. The purple line shows clearly temporary overhead resistance. This was the reason for our partial profit taking in last week’s silver chart-book.

Nevertheless the overall consensus is bullish in nature:

Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of February 3rd 2019

Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of February 3rd 2019

The weekly chart shows even more clearly why an instant push through the $16.15 zone was not very likely.

Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of February 3rd 2019

Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of February 3rd 2019

Our top down approach in time frame shows a bullish picture with only brief resistance. But we do not advise to initiate trades on support on the daily chart! If you hold a main position and want to reload, money management allows for such a strategy. Starting out with a new position here though does not provide a favorable risk reward ratio.

Of course, it is imperative to see through time to evaluate position taking or not (Positioning and Time). A simple evaluation of likelihood of price behavior is not enough to consistently extract profits out of the highly complex markets.

Silver in US Dollar, daily chart as of February 3rd 2019

Silver in US Dollar, daily chart as of February 3rd 2019

The four hour chart illustrates in its representation of market profile, how overhead minimizes reward expectations on the short/long term:

Silver in US Dollar, 4 hour chart as of February 3rd 2019

Silver in US Dollar, 4 hour chart as of February 3rd 2019

Patience and picking ones entry spots wisely, is the solution to the often overlooked problem of position entry. Only by looking at the market from various angels and various time frames a sustainable risk profile can be provided.

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By | 2019-02-03T11:16:57+00:00 February 3rd, 2019|Tags: , , , |1 Comment

About the Author:

Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent.Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

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