Feb 10th 2019, Silver Chartbook

Principle risk in Silver

One aspect of risk is support. Support can be defined in directional support and horizontal support. Many technical analysts use moving averages and trend lines plus horizontal support/resistance lines. They aim to come up with an absolute number to precisely predict a future entry point.In a field of endless uncertainties this desire is high. Just like in real life so perfectionism is paralysis and no one has a crystal ball. Principle risk in Silver analysis needs more depth!

Therefore a more realistic approach is to define supply and demand zones.

Defining a higher probability of entry at a certain prize range:

Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of February 10th 2019

Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of February 10th 2019

No matter so if you use advanced methods like

Fractal theory:

Silver in US Dollar, daily chart as of February 10th 2019

Silver in US Dollar, daily chart as of February 10th 2019

or

Market profile:

Silver in US Dollar, 4 hour chart as of February 10th 2019

Silver in US Dollar, 4 hour chart as of February 10th 2019

Leaving out the logic that it is increasingly harder to predict the future, the further the point in time chosen is unwise.

It´s a fact, that large players need days/weeks to acquire or distribute positions. This is based on the need to avoid slippage due to liquidity issues and the fact that “working an order” provides other opportunities. This among other factors and the important fact of risk reduction has as a consequence that these supply and demand zones are more precisely assessed when they actually form.

Risk reduction to analysis these distributions and accumulations in real time is what massively reduces risk for the market participant. This is the reason why almost all our entries and exits are posted in real time.

These market structure principles supports our stance of last week’s silver chart-book. We continue to advise as much as recent price action at a first glace might look ideal for an entry point, to not take these “late in the move” risks.

Over head resistance shown in red, does not support an aggressive participation here. If you haven’t established early core positioning in zone 1 or zone 2, a larger retracement might be more risk averse to expose oneself to the silver market.

Over head resistance:

Silver in US Dollar, daily zone chart as of February 10th 2019

Silver in US Dollar, daily zone chart as of February 10th 2019

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About the Author:

Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent.Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

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