Feb 24th 2019, Crypto Chartbook

Seeing clearly – Now!

Speculators naturally ask themselves questions about the market. But what are the right questions to ask though? Most speculators loose consistently money based on just that factor alone. Asking “where is the low”, and this most likely without even having a plan of action, will not solve the problem of no one knowing.

In a world where business is conducted in a form of influence, we naturally influence ourselves as well. We form an opinion and substantiate it afterwards with “facts”. We convince ourselves “here is the absolute low”. But of course no one truly knows and such convictions are not useful. This is especially true, since we wait for proof. If you enter the market at a time of proof, stops are huge.

Seeing clearly – Now – and what this Now is, is only possible without an opinion. It requires to not insist to know, but merely evaluate if a trade entry has a likelihood of a positive outcome.

The Bitcoin market had 4 legs to the downside from mid December 2017 to mid of December 2018:

BTCUSDT daily chart as of February 24th, 2019 a

BTCUSDT daily chart as of February 24th, 2019 a

From that point on prices moved in a sideways fashion.

A possible bottom formation was built and provided for low risk entry points:

BTCUSDT daily chart as of February 24th, 2019 b

BTCUSDT daily chart as of February 24th, 2019 b

Do we claim this to be the absolute bottom? No! But we actively exposed capital to risk, to participate in a low risk fashion and caught a market leg from price levels 3,400 to 4,200 USD. A percentage range of around 23.5 percent.

The goal is not to be right, the goal is to make consistent returns on low risk.

BTCUSDT daily chart as of February 24th, 2019 c

BTCUSDT daily chart as of February 24th, 2019 c

While at this point the average market participant finds possible confirmation in his question about “the low” and contemplates a long entry, the astute trader is taking profits.

BTCUSDT daily chart as of February 24th, 2019 d

BTCUSDT daily chart as of February 24th, 2019 d

In principle, prices can go sideways, down or up, and no one knows with certainty where they will be heading. We have no influence on that. But we can improve ourselves, by considering to ask higher quality questions.

All charts timely posted in our telegram channel.

About the Author:

Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent.Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

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