Dec 6th 2019, Crypto Chartbook – Staying alert in pat

Staying alert in pat

We advocate a contrarian approach based on a time frame confluence system. When this confluence is absent as of right now, we do not open new large size positions. Most of the times we are positioned already and take possibly some reloads. The following charts will illustrate why at this point a “reload only” environment is present. A range break is necessary to establish a low risk entry zone. Staying alert in pat.

 Monthly chart, BTC/USDT, December 6th 2019, “sideways to down”:

Bitcoin in TetherUS, monthly chart as of December 6th 2019

Bitcoin in TetherUS, monthly chart as of December 6th 2019

The monthly chart points towards weakness in the market. As much as the month of December candle bounced from a support zone, it still closed on a down note.

Stayng alert in pat, BTC/USDT, weekly chart, December 6th 2019, “bullish long entry zone”:

Bitcoin in TetherUS, weekly chart as of December 6th 2019

Bitcoin in TetherUS, weekly chart as of December 6th 2019

The weekly chart shows a vastly different picture. We went long aggressively on November 25th with both bitcoin and some portfolio reloads. Those entries were posted live in our telegram channel. Consequently we cashed in handsome profits through partial profit taking based on our quad exit strategy.



BTC/USDT, daily chart, December 6th 2019, “volatile triangle building”:

Bitcoin in TetherUS, daily chart as of December 6th 2019

Bitcoin in TetherUS, daily chart as of December 6th 2019

The result of this misalignment of higher time frames is a triangle formation on high volatility on the daily time frame. Prices searching for stability near the supply and demand zone of US$7,400. Volume indicating quite some interest of all time frame players.

Especially the near 10% intra-day advancement (and immediate decline) candle stick candle of December 4th points towards the struggle for direction.

Staying alert in pat

As contrarians we were early positioned and are holding a position in the more likely breakout direction. Avoiding a not unusual struggle zone following, is one of the perks. We even managed to have successful reloads thereafter for income producing results. So why does the headline read “staying alert”?

If you take mid 4th quarter values of bitcoin and compare its annual advances over the last 10 years the results read as follows in percentage profit gains:

2010 to 2011  1,610%

2011 to 2012    244%

 2012 to 2013  1,670%

 2013 to 2014      70%

 2014 to 2015       21%

 2015 to 2016       71%

 2016 to 2017     825%

 2017 to 2018       -2%

 2018 to 2019       45%

With an asset class of this profit potential, a larger time frame turning point is not to be missed. Present conditions evoking emotions of uncertainty need a reminder of the true profit potential in relationship to risk.

All charts timely posted in our telegram channel.

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About the Author:

Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent.Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.


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