Mar 11th 2019, Crypto Chartbook

Early bird…

Early bird catches the worm… The question is, where are the opportunities?

For the last two weeks, the market has been creeping upward (1) in a tight, narrow 280 point range. This sideways movement is further supported by prices ranging within the mean (2). This confirming the strength of the sideways channel, as well as steadily declining volume (3) on the daily chart. So while we expect continual sideways movement, the CCI Indicator (Commodity Channel Index) (4) gives some validity to a long set up soon.

Daily chart of Bitcoin representing bottom building price action:

BTCUSDT daily chart as of March 11th, 2019

BTCUSDT daily chart as of March 11th, 2019

However, higher time frames indicate that we may be experiencing some directional conviction to lower price levels. This is due to strong overhead resistance on larger time frames.

Does history repeat itself? In the markets the answer is: Yes, all the time. It is wise to exercise caution as lines 1 and 2 (in purple) indicate a slight creep up in compressed trading days followed by strong downward conviction. This is further supported by the overhead resistance of the Fibonacci Retracements at 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. In addition a repetition of the dragon fly doji (3 & 4) is not unlikely.

Weekly chart favoring the short side:

BTCUSDT weekly chart as of March 11th, 2019

BTCUSDT weekly chart as of March 11th, 2019

The 4-hour chart shows another creeping-up-trading channel that was first broken at 1, retested at 2 for a second leg down at 3. That coupled with multiple high volume nodes above, forms overhead resistance.

BTCUSDT 4 hour chart as of March 11th, 2019

BTCUSDT 4 hour chart as of March 11th, 2019

The monthly chart, by proxy, represents the lowest risk opportunity out of the four times frames. This is supported by a recognizable candlestick pattern (the previous  month’s bullish engulfing pattern) and three larger support zones below. For a longer term play, this offers the clearest low risk opportunity with an acceptable risk-reward ratio.

BTCUSDT monthly chart as of March 11th, 2019

BTCUSDT monthly chart as of March 11th, 2019

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About the Author:

Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent.Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

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