Honesty persists

One fascinating aspect of trading is its purity factor. You can’t manipulate yourself through conflicts with excuses or bribes in market play. In a typical employment or business situation, you can always find a route to get the upper hand somehow. Not in trading. Just like a stopwatch doesn’t lie in a competitive sport, the market doesn’t give an inch and can’t be talked into your corner. You either perform and get rewarded or you foul up and your profit/loss statement will show you that you didn’t do your job right. Honesty persists.

It is hard, brutal even, yes! But it is transparent. It is honest to the bones and being that close to the truth is something addictive.

Charts are the stopwatch for the trader. The recordkeeper and the clear measurement of the sequence of moments in time reflecting human behavior resulting in price movement. They provide a level playing field.

The fact that Bitcoin´s supply is limited, comparable to the gold standard of the past, is another aspect of market honesty we respect. It can’t be manipulated into a typical hyperinflation scenario like we might be just heading towards with fiat currencies right now.

In short, we believe in the principle honesty of the markets and if left alone in their origin of functionality, they might just show us the way out of many conflicting ideas by being a true reflection of our behavior.

BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, First, second, third:

BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of September 28th, 2020

That being said, a simple interpretation without a pre-biased view of where we would like prices to be heading is a trader’s virtue. A truthful interpretation of a chart just as it is right before you is one of the most valuable tasks a trader can do. Asking simple questions like “Are we trending?”, provides the best guidance for success in their simple answers.

The weekly chart above answers this question clearly! Yes, Bitcoin is trending. When it found support at the green line it accelerated quickly towards the directional resistance line in red. It consolidated there sideways, breaking through.

After a brief retracement it found support what had been previously resistance. From there the second leg of advancements was performed. Again a brief zone of sideways price movement followed with a retracement towards the 10k support zone. Over the last four weeks, we bounced from there, building the initial price move of a possible third leg.

This might all sound simple, but many are distraught by a bombardment of news. Fake news spread statistically six times faster than facts. Hence, finding a quiet truthful companion in charts is essential in times of information overflow!

BTC-USDT, Monthly Chart, Black and White:

BTC-USDT, monthly chart as of September 28th, 2020

Less is more! This counts for trading just as well. We find on the monthly time frame in black and white that we are not trading in a sideways channel. Again direction is obvious, presented here in green directional projection channels. These can be found back when Bitcoin was trading in its teens. Breakouts from these sloping channels are much more vicious in price advancements as a sideways channel breakout. We have seen this when Bitcoins last rush ended near 20k.

Following statistical guidance like this and using a sum of news rather as a sentiment guideline supports focused trade decision making instead of getting overwhelmed by too much conflicting data that is in times of extreme market uncertainty too dense in its frequency.

BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, Low risk positioning:

BTC-USDT, daily chart as of September 28th, 2020

While many hope for clarity after the US elections and wear slowly out on the sidelines still engaging in every bit of news, we have been trading as usual and sharing our entries live in our free telegram channel. The underlying idea being, that with our low-risk quad exit strategy risk being taken out of a trade shortly after entry allows for early positioning. Entering into a possible high volatility situation when everybody feels the cat is out of the bag might be less attractive from a risk perspective. The market factors anticipatory news into its speculative equation and playing the odds early is just fine if the risk is at a minimal.